- in this sentence, you are just hoping that you'll get a promotion. based on the sentence you're not yet sure whether you'll be promoted or not.
while on the 2nd sentence:
2) I believe that I will be promoted
- in this sentence, you have already assumed that you will be "promoted" though you also used the phrase "I believe". this may also mean that you are quite sure that you'll get the promotion as compared to the first sentence; why? because you have already used the word "promoted" which in the past tense.
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